Jungnang Chorus Mustang vs Pyeongchang United — K4 League 2026
K4 League · Round 22
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Jungnang Chorus Mustang43%
Pyeongchang United32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 20% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches
Pyeongchang United away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.33 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48
Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Jinju Citizen
Jincheon
Geumsan InsamJungnang Chorus Mustang
Jecheon Citizen
Namyangju
Sejong SA
Geoje CitizenPyeongchang United
Gijang United
Haman
Seosan Pioneer
Pyeongtaek CitizenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jungnang Chorus Mustang host Pyeongchang United on Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 08:00. The match is part of the K4 League 2026/2027 season.
Jungnang Chorus Mustang face Pyeongchang United (K4 League)
K4 League returns with Jungnang Chorus Mustang hosting Pyeongchang United. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.