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Jubilo Iwata vs Kanazawa — J2 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kanazawa
Kanazawa
8/23/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 14Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Jubilo Iwata49%
×Draw24%
Kanazawa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.70
Kanazawa
1.19

Jubilo Iwata creates 43% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 126 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.86
Kanazawa
1.25

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.14
Kanazawa
1.54

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Kanazawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
73%
Jubilo Iwata or Kanazawa
76%
Draw or Kanazawa
51%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
26%
Kanazawa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
82%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
51%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
24%
Kanazawa 1+ goals
70%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
33%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
65%
Kanazawa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 83 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.86 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
49%
level
24%
Kanazawa scores more
27%

Jubilo Iwata at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Jubilo Iwata 6–0 Kanazawa

Jubilo Iwata beat Kanazawa 6-0 in J2 League on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.