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Juara vs Sorriso — Matogrossense 2 2024

Juara
Juara
Canc
22:00
Sorriso
Sorriso
6/27/2025Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Juara36%
×Draw24%
Sorriso40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juara
1.50
Sorriso
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Juara
2.00
Sorriso
2.20

allows per match

Juara
1.00
Sorriso
1.00

finishing

Juara+0.00on par
Sorriso+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juara ↓

Sorriso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Juara or draw
60%
Juara or Sorriso
76%
Draw or Sorriso
64%

Winning margin

Juara wins by 2+
17%
Sorriso wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Juara 1+ goals
78%
Juara 2+ goals
44%
Juara 3+ goals
19%
Sorriso 1+ goals
80%
Sorriso 2+ goals
47%
Sorriso 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Juara (draw refunded)
47%
Sorriso (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juara at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sorriso away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juara attack 2.00 + Sorriso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sorriso attack 2.20 + Juara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juara scores more
36%
level
24%
Sorriso scores more
40%

Sorriso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sorriso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juara face Sorriso (Matogrossense 2)

Matogrossense 2 returns with Juara hosting Sorriso. Match starts June 27, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.