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Juan Pablo II College vs Cienciano — Primera División 2026

Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College
Preview
20:15
Cienciano
Cienciano
7/25/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II
50%
Juan Pablo II College
model favours
50%26%24%

Cienciano score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Juan Pablo II College50%
×Draw26%
Cienciano24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Pablo II College
1.52
Cienciano
0.95

Juan Pablo II College creates 60% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Juan Pablo II College
1.65
Cienciano
1.05

allows per match

Juan Pablo II College
0.85
Cienciano
1.39

finishing

Juan Pablo II College-0.02on par
Cienciano+0.33scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Pablo II College ↓

Cienciano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juan Pablo II College or draw
76%
Juan Pablo II College or Cienciano
74%
Draw or Cienciano
50%

Winning margin

Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+
26%
Cienciano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals
78%
Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals
45%
Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals
20%
Cienciano 1+ goals
61%
Cienciano 2+ goals
25%
Cienciano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)
68%
Cienciano (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Pablo II College at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 8 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Pablo II College attack 1.65 + Cienciano defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cienciano attack 1.05 + Juan Pablo II College defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juan Pablo II College scores more
50%
level
26%
Cienciano scores more
24%

Juan Pablo II College at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juan Pablo II College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cienciano have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 71% of Cienciano’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Juan Pablo II College sit 18, Cienciano 3 in the table
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Juan Pablo II College
Balanced
Cienciano
Possession-dominant
45%Possession55%
75%Pass accuracy78%
10.6ShotsBiggest gap15.7
1.18xG1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Juan Pablo II CollegeCienciano

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

0
Juan Pablo II College
1
Draws
2
Cienciano
Avg goals: 4.7BTTS: 100%
1–61–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
College
DDDLD
Cienciano
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juan Pablo II College face Cienciano (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Juan Pablo II College hosting Cienciano. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Juan Pablo II College host Cienciano at Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.