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Juan Aurich vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
7/8/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 7Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Juan Aurich64%
×Draw20%
Carlos Stein17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Aurich
2.21
Carlos Stein
1.04

Juan Aurich creates 113% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

Juan Aurich
1.64
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

Juan Aurich
0.99
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw
83%
Juan Aurich or Carlos Stein
80%
Draw or Carlos Stein
36%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+
40%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals
89%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
65%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
38%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
65%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
28%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
79%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Juan Aurich scores more
64%
level
20%
Carlos Stein scores more
17%

Juan Aurich at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juan Aurich vs Carlos Stein

Juan Aurich and Carlos Stein drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.