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JSP vs Tonnerre — Championnat National 2019

JSP
JSP
PST
15:00
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
5/31/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 29Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

JSP42%
×Draw32%
Tonnerre26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSP
1.08
Tonnerre
0.78

JSP creates 38% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 91 away

creates per match

JSP
1.12
Tonnerre
0.77

allows per match

JSP
0.78
Tonnerre
1.04

finishing

JSP+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSP ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JSP or draw
74%
JSP or Tonnerre
68%
Draw or Tonnerre
58%

Winning margin

JSP wins by 2+
17%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JSP 1+ goals
66%
JSP 2+ goals
29%
JSP 3+ goals
10%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
54%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
18%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JSP (draw refunded)
62%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSP at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.78 · 114 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.04 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSP attack 1.12 + Tonnerre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tonnerre attack 0.77 + JSP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JSP scores more
42%
level
32%
Tonnerre scores more
26%

JSP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JSP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JSP face Tonnerre (Championnat National)

Championnat National returns with JSP hosting Tonnerre. Match starts May 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

JSP host Tonnerre at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.