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JSP vs Buffles — Championnat National 2019

JSP
JSP
FT
0 – 0
Buffles
Buffles
2/24/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 17Stade Jean-Pierre Gascon (Pobè)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

JSP35%
×Draw33%
Buffles32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSP
0.91
Buffles
0.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 119 away

creates per match

JSP
1.10
Buffles
0.96

allows per match

JSP
0.78
Buffles
0.71

finishing

JSP+0.00on par
Buffles+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSP ↓

Buffles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

JSP or draw
68%
JSP or Buffles
67%
Draw or Buffles
65%

Winning margin

JSP wins by 2+
12%
Buffles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

JSP 1+ goals
60%
JSP 2+ goals
23%
JSP 3+ goals
6%
Buffles 1+ goals
58%
Buffles 2+ goals
22%
Buffles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JSP (draw refunded)
52%
Buffles (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSP at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.78 · 113 matches

Buffles away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSP attack 1.10 + Buffles defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Buffles attack 0.96 + JSP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

JSP scores more
35%
level
33%
Buffles scores more
32%

JSP at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "JSP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: JSP 0–0 Buffles

JSP and Buffles drew 0-0 in Championnat National on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Jean-Pierre Gascon (Pobè).