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JSP vs Avrankou Omnisport — Championnat National 2019

JSP
JSP
FT
1 – 0
Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
3/17/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 11Stade Jean-Pierre Gascon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

JSP51%
×Draw28%
Avrankou Omnisport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSP
1.35
Avrankou Omnisport
0.74

JSP creates 82% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 74 away

creates per match

JSP
1.12
Avrankou Omnisport
0.70

allows per match

JSP
0.78
Avrankou Omnisport
1.57

finishing

JSP+0.00on par
Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSP ↓

Avrankou Omnisport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JSP or draw
79%
JSP or Avrankou Omnisport
72%
Draw or Avrankou Omnisport
49%

Winning margin

JSP wins by 2+
25%
Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JSP 1+ goals
74%
JSP 2+ goals
39%
JSP 3+ goals
15%
Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
52%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
17%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JSP (draw refunded)
71%
Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSP at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.78 · 114 matches

Avrankou Omnisport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSP attack 1.12 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Avrankou Omnisport attack 0.70 + JSP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

JSP scores more
51%
level
28%
Avrankou Omnisport scores more
21%

JSP at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JSP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: JSP 1–0 Avrankou Omnisport

JSP beat Avrankou Omnisport 1-0 in Championnat National on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jean-Pierre Gascon in Pobè.