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JSK vs Kuya Sport — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
FT
0 – 1
Kuya Sport
Kuya Sport
2/24/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Centre Technique Kurara Mpova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

JSK51%
×Draw28%
Kuya Sport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.38
Kuya Sport
0.78

JSK creates 77% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Kuya Sport
0.71

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Kuya Sport
1.60

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Kuya Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Kuya Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JSK or draw
79%
JSK or Kuya Sport
72%
Draw or Kuya Sport
49%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
25%
Kuya Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
75%
JSK 2+ goals
40%
JSK 3+ goals
16%
Kuya Sport 1+ goals
54%
Kuya Sport 2+ goals
18%
Kuya Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
71%
Kuya Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Kuya Sport away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Kuya Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kuya Sport attack 0.71 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

JSK scores more
51%
level
28%
Kuya Sport scores more
21%

JSK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JSK 0 – 1 Kuya Sport

Kuya Sport beat JSK 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 24, 2022.

The match was played at Centre Technique Kurara Mpova in Mikala.