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JSK vs Etoile de Kivu — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
FT
2 – 0
Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
9/10/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

JSK48%
×Draw29%
Etoile de Kivu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.30
Etoile de Kivu
0.82

JSK creates 59% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Etoile de Kivu
0.80

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Etoile de Kivu
1.46

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Etoile de Kivu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JSK or draw
76%
JSK or Etoile de Kivu
71%
Draw or Etoile de Kivu
52%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
22%
Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
73%
JSK 2+ goals
37%
JSK 3+ goals
14%
Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
56%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
20%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
67%
Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Etoile de Kivu away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Etoile de Kivu attack 0.80 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

JSK scores more
48%
level
29%
Etoile de Kivu scores more
24%

JSK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JSK vs Etoile de Kivu

JSK beat Etoile de Kivu 2-0 in Ligue 1 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.