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JS Kabylie vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
1/13/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade du 1er Novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

JS Kabylie50%
×Draw27%
ASO Chlef23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.40
ASO Chlef
0.85

JS Kabylie creates 65% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 106 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.39
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.79
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
77%
JS Kabylie or ASO Chlef
73%
Draw or ASO Chlef
50%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
24%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
75%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
41%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
17%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
57%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
21%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
69%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
50%
level
27%
ASO Chlef scores more
23%

JS Kabylie at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JS Kabylie 2–1 ASO Chlef

JS Kabylie beat ASO Chlef 2-1 in Ligue 1 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 in Tizi-Ouzou.