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Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
2/26/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong Utrecht42%
×Draw25%
FC OSS33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Utrecht
1.47
FC OSS
1.28

Jong Utrecht creates 15% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong Utrecht
1.29
FC OSS
0.90

allows per match

Jong Utrecht
1.67
FC OSS
1.65

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par
FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw
67%
Jong Utrecht or FC OSS
75%
Draw or FC OSS
58%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
20%
FC OSS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
77%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
43%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
18%
FC OSS 1+ goals
72%
FC OSS 2+ goals
37%
FC OSS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
56%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches

FC OSS away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + FC OSS defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.47

FC OSS attack 0.90 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more
42%
level
25%
FC OSS scores more
33%

Jong Utrecht at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong Utrecht 0–3 FC OSS

FC OSS beat Jong Utrecht 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Utrecht.