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Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
11/24/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 16Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Jong Utrecht32%
×Draw24%
De Graafschap44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Utrecht
1.38
De Graafschap
1.67

De Graafschap creates 21% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 131 away

creates per match

Jong Utrecht
1.29
De Graafschap
1.68

allows per match

Jong Utrecht
1.67
De Graafschap
1.47

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par
De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw
56%
Jong Utrecht or De Graafschap
76%
Draw or De Graafschap
68%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
14%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
75%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
40%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
16%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
81%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
50%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
42%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + De Graafschap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more
32%
level
24%
De Graafschap scores more
44%

De Graafschap at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong Utrecht 2–0 De Graafschap

Jong Utrecht beat De Graafschap 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Utrecht.