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Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
Preview
19:00
Vitesse
Vitesse
2/1/2027Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 24De Herdgang
42%
Jong PSV U21
model favours
42%23%35%

Jong PSV U21 score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Jong PSV U2142%
×Draw23%
Vitesse35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.75
Vitesse
1.57

Jong PSV U21 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 38 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Vitesse
1.55

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Vitesse
1.82

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Vitesse+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Vitesse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
65%
Jong PSV U21 or Vitesse
77%
Draw or Vitesse
58%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
22%
Vitesse wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
83%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
52%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
25%
Vitesse 1+ goals
79%
Vitesse 2+ goals
46%
Vitesse 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
55%
Vitesse (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Vitesse defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vitesse attack 1.55 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
42%
level
23%
Vitesse scores more
35%

Jong PSV U21 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U21
LLWWL
Vitesse
DWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jong PSV U21 host Vitesse

February 1, 2027: Jong PSV U21 take on Vitesse in Eerste Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jong PSV U21 host Vitesse at De Herdgang.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.