Jong PSV U21 1–1 Roda: Result & Stats

Jong PSV U21

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Roda

11/4/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 13Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Jong PSV U2131%

×Draw22%

Roda48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong PSV U21Expected goals in this matchRoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.01

Jong PSV U21

1.58

Roda

2.01

Roda creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.58

creates per match

2.38

1.64

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Jong PSV U21

1.58

Roda

2.38

allows per match

Jong PSV U21

1.64

Roda

1.57

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.02on par

Roda-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Roda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw

52%

Jong PSV U21 or Roda

78%

Draw or Roda

69%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

14%

Roda wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

79%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

47%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

21%

Roda 1+ goals

87%

Roda 2+ goals

59%

Roda 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

39%

Roda (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 5 matches

Roda away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.58 + Roda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Roda attack 2.38 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more

31%

level

22%

Roda scores more

48%

Roda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff