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Jong PSV U21 vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Roda
Roda
2/22/2019Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 26Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Jong PSV U2131%
×Draw22%
Roda48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.58
Roda
2.01

Roda creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.58
Roda
2.38

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.64
Roda
1.57

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.02on par
Roda-0.52scores less

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
52%
Jong PSV U21 or Roda
78%
Draw or Roda
69%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
14%
Roda wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
79%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
47%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
21%
Roda 1+ goals
87%
Roda 2+ goals
59%
Roda 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
39%
Roda (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 5 matches

Roda away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.58 + Roda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Roda attack 2.38 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
31%
level
22%
Roda scores more
48%

Roda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong PSV U21 2–2 Roda

Jong PSV U21 and Roda drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven).