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Jong PSV U21 vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MVV
MVV
4/5/2021Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32Sportcomplex De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2148%
×Draw23%
MVV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.79
MVV
1.33

Jong PSV U21 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
MVV
1.07

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
MVV
1.92

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
71%
Jong PSV U21 or MVV
77%
Draw or MVV
52%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
26%
MVV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
83%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
53%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
26%
MVV 1+ goals
74%
MVV 2+ goals
38%
MVV 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
63%
MVV (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

MVV away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + MVV defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

MVV attack 1.07 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
48%
level
23%
MVV scores more
29%

Jong PSV U21 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong PSV U21 vs MVV

Jong PSV U21 beat MVV 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang in Eindhoven.