Jong PSV U21 0–1 MVV: Result & Stats

Jong PSV U21

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

MVV

8/26/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 3Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2148%

×Draw23%

MVV29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong PSV U21Expected goals in this matchMVV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.33

Jong PSV U21

1.79

MVV

1.33

Jong PSV U21 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

1.59

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Jong PSV U21

1.67

MVV

1.07

allows per match

Jong PSV U21

1.59

MVV

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

MVV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw

71%

Jong PSV U21 or MVV

77%

Draw or MVV

52%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

26%

MVV wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

83%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

53%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

26%

MVV 1+ goals

74%

MVV 2+ goals

38%

MVV 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

63%

MVV (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

MVV away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + MVV defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

MVV attack 1.07 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more

48%

level

23%

MVV scores more

29%

Jong PSV U21 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff