Jong PSV U21 1–2 FC Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Jong PSV U21

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Eindhoven

9/18/2020

Eerste Divisie · Round 4Sportcomplex De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2143%

×Draw24%

FC Eindhoven33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong PSV U21Expected goals in this matchFC Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.43

Jong PSV U21

1.65

FC Eindhoven

1.43

Jong PSV U21 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

1.67

creates per match

1.27

1.59

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Jong PSV U21

1.67

FC Eindhoven

1.27

allows per match

Jong PSV U21

1.59

FC Eindhoven

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

FC Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw

67%

Jong PSV U21 or FC Eindhoven

76%

Draw or FC Eindhoven

57%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

22%

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

81%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

49%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

23%

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

76%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

42%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

56%

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC Eindhoven attack 1.27 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more

43%

level

24%

FC Eindhoven scores more

33%

Jong PSV U21 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff