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Jong PSV U21 vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
Preview
18:00
Emmen
Emmen
5/14/2027Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38De Herdgang
Big match
41%
Jong PSV U21
model favours
41%24%35%

Jong PSV U21 score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Jong PSV U2141%
×Draw24%
Emmen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.58
Emmen
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 76 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Emmen
1.30

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Emmen
1.50

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
65%
Jong PSV U21 or Emmen
76%
Draw or Emmen
59%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
20%
Emmen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
79%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
47%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
21%
Emmen 1+ goals
77%
Emmen 2+ goals
42%
Emmen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
54%
Emmen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Emmen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Emmen attack 1.30 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
41%
level
24%
Emmen scores more
35%

Jong PSV U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Emmen win just 31% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
  • Emmen fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Jong PSV U21
Balanced
Emmen
Balanced
52%PossessionBiggest gap46%
82%Pass accuracy76%
13.3Shots15.1
1.76xG1.92
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Jong PSV U21Emmen

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
5
Emmen
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 63%
3–23–12–42–33–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
U21
LLWWL
Emmen
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jong PSV U21 face Emmen (Eerste Divisie)

Eerste Divisie returns with Jong PSV U21 hosting Emmen. Match starts May 14, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jong PSV U21 host Emmen at De Herdgang.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.