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Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dordrecht
Dordrecht
5/6/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2149%
×Draw22%
Dordrecht29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.89
Dordrecht
1.41

Jong PSV U21 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Dordrecht
1.22

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Dordrecht
2.11

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Dordrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
71%
Jong PSV U21 or Dordrecht
78%
Draw or Dordrecht
51%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
27%
Dordrecht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
85%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
56%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
29%
Dordrecht 1+ goals
76%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
41%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
63%
Dordrecht (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Dordrecht defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.89

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
49%
level
22%
Dordrecht scores more
29%

Jong PSV U21 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong PSV U21 1–1 Dordrecht

Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eindhoven.