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Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
Preview
19:00
Almere City FC
Almere City FC
1/11/2027Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21De Herdgang
Big match
42%
Jong PSV U21
model favours
42%23%36%

Jong PSV U21 score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Jong PSV U2142%
×Draw23%
Almere City FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.76
Almere City FC
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 113 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Almere City FC
1.65

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Almere City FC
1.85

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Almere City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
64%
Jong PSV U21 or Almere City FC
77%
Draw or Almere City FC
58%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
22%
Almere City FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
83%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
52%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
26%
Almere City FC 1+ goals
80%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
48%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
54%
Almere City FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Almere City FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Almere City FC attack 1.65 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
42%
level
23%
Almere City FC scores more
36%

Jong PSV U21 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Almere City FC score first in only 24% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of Almere City FC’s matches
  • 71% of Almere City FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.2 goals
  • Almere City FC fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 2.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Jong PSV U21
Balanced
Almere City FC
Attack-heavy
52%Possession48%
82%Pass accuracy77%
13.3ShotsBiggest gap18.0
1.76xG2.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Jong PSV U21Almere City FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
5
Almere City FC
Avg goals: 4.2BTTS: 90%
2–34–22–10–15–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
U21
LLWWL
FC
WLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC — Match Preview

Jong PSV U21 face Almere City FC on January 11, 2027 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jong PSV U21 host Almere City FC at De Herdgang.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.