Jong PSV U21 5–2 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Jong PSV U21

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Almere City FC

12/21/2018

Eerste Divisie · Round 19Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Jong PSV U2142%

×Draw23%

Almere City FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong PSV U21Expected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.62

Jong PSV U21

1.76

Almere City FC

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 113 away

1.67

creates per match

1.65

1.59

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Jong PSV U21

1.67

Almere City FC

1.65

allows per match

Jong PSV U21

1.59

Almere City FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw

64%

Jong PSV U21 or Almere City FC

77%

Draw or Almere City FC

58%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

22%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

83%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

52%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

26%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

80%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

48%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

54%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Almere City FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Almere City FC attack 1.65 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more

42%

level

23%

Almere City FC scores more

36%

Jong PSV U21 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff