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Jonava vs Hegelmann II — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
Preview
12:00
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
11/8/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 30
54%
Jonava
model favours
54%22%24%

Jonava score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Jonava54%
×Draw22%
Hegelmann II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.98
Hegelmann II
1.24

Jonava creates 60% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 39 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.78
Hegelmann II
1.10

allows per match

Jonava
1.37
Hegelmann II
2.18

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Hegelmann II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Hegelmann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
76%
Jonava or Hegelmann II
78%
Draw or Hegelmann II
46%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
32%
Hegelmann II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
86%
Jonava 2+ goals
59%
Jonava 3+ goals
31%
Hegelmann II 1+ goals
71%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
35%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
70%
Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Hegelmann II away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + Hegelmann II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.98

Hegelmann II attack 1.10 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jonava scores more
54%
level
22%
Hegelmann II scores more
24%

Jonava at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hegelmann II score first in only 15% of matches
  • 67% of Jonava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Jonava
WLLWD
II
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jonava host Hegelmann II

November 8, 2026: Jonava take on Hegelmann II in 1 Lyga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.