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Johvi Phoenix vs Kuressaare II — Esiliiga B 2026

Johvi Phoenix
Johvi Phoenix
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
8/21/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 24Heino Lipu staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Johvi Phoenix57%
×Draw18%
Kuressaare II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johvi Phoenix
2.83
Kuressaare II
1.86

Johvi Phoenix creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

creates per match

Johvi Phoenix
3.11
Kuressaare II
1.64

allows per match

Johvi Phoenix
2.09
Kuressaare II
2.56

finishing

Johvi Phoenix+0.00on par
Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johvi Phoenix ↓

Kuressaare II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Johvi Phoenix or draw
75%
Johvi Phoenix or Kuressaare II
82%
Draw or Kuressaare II
43%

Winning margin

Johvi Phoenix wins by 2+
38%
Kuressaare II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Johvi Phoenix 1+ goals
94%
Johvi Phoenix 2+ goals
77%
Johvi Phoenix 3+ goals
53%
Kuressaare II 1+ goals
84%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
55%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Johvi Phoenix (draw refunded)
70%
Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johvi Phoenix at home — creates 3.11, concedes 2.09 · 46 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johvi Phoenix attack 3.11 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.83

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Johvi Phoenix defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Johvi Phoenix scores more
57%
level
18%
Kuressaare II scores more
25%

Johvi Phoenix at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Johvi Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johvi Phoenix vs Kuressaare II

Johvi Phoenix beat Kuressaare II 5-0 in Esiliiga B on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Heino Lipu staadion in Jõhvi.