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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Svay Rieng — ASEAN Club Championship 2024

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Preview
10:00
Svay Rieng
Svay Rieng
10/8/2026ASEAN Club ChampionshipASEAN Club Championship · Group StageSultan Ibrahim Stadium
Big match
49%
Johor Darul Takzim FC
model favours
49%22%29%

58% of Svay Rieng’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC49%
×Draw22%
Svay Rieng29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.94
Svay Rieng
1.43

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.75
Svay Rieng
1.86

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.00
Svay Rieng
1.14

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Svay Rieng+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Svay Rieng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
71%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Svay Rieng
78%
Draw or Svay Rieng
51%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
28%
Svay Rieng wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
86%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
58%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
30%
Svay Rieng 1+ goals
76%
Svay Rieng 2+ goals
42%
Svay Rieng 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
63%
Svay Rieng (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Svay Rieng away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.75 + Svay Rieng defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.94

Svay Rieng attack 1.86 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
49%
level
22%
Svay Rieng scores more
29%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Svay Rieng score first in only 30% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Johor Darul Takzim FC 2 vs Svay Rieng 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
LWWLW
Rieng
DDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Svay Rieng — Match Preview

Johor Darul Takzim FC face Svay Rieng on October 8, 2026 in this ASEAN Club Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Johor Darul Takzim FC host Svay Rieng at Sultan Ibrahim Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.