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Jocoro vs Isidro Metapán — Primera Division 2019

Jocoro
Jocoro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Isidro Metapán
Isidro Metapán
1/22/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 2Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Jocoro41%
×Draw26%
Isidro Metapán33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jocoro
1.39
Isidro Metapán
1.21

Jocoro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 147 away

creates per match

Jocoro
1.52
Isidro Metapán
1.07

allows per match

Jocoro
1.35
Isidro Metapán
1.25

finishing

Jocoro+0.00on par
Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jocoro ↓

Isidro Metapán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jocoro or draw
67%
Jocoro or Isidro Metapán
74%
Draw or Isidro Metapán
59%

Winning margin

Jocoro wins by 2+
19%
Isidro Metapán wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jocoro 1+ goals
75%
Jocoro 2+ goals
40%
Jocoro 3+ goals
16%
Isidro Metapán 1+ goals
70%
Isidro Metapán 2+ goals
34%
Isidro Metapán 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jocoro (draw refunded)
56%
Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jocoro at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jocoro attack 1.52 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Jocoro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jocoro scores more
41%
level
26%
Isidro Metapán scores more
33%

Jocoro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jocoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Jocoro 0–0 Isidro Metapán

Jocoro and Isidro Metapán drew 0-0 in Primera Division on January 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos in Santa Rosa de Lima.