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Jocoro vs Atlético Marte — Primera Division 2019

Jocoro
Jocoro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
10/30/2021Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 1st Phase - 16Complejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Jocoro47%
×Draw25%
Atlético Marte27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jocoro
1.57
Atlético Marte
1.13

Jocoro creates 39% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 56 away

creates per match

Jocoro
1.52
Atlético Marte
0.91

allows per match

Jocoro
1.35
Atlético Marte
1.63

finishing

Jocoro+0.00on par
Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jocoro ↓

Atlético Marte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jocoro or draw
73%
Jocoro or Atlético Marte
75%
Draw or Atlético Marte
53%

Winning margin

Jocoro wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Marte wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jocoro 1+ goals
79%
Jocoro 2+ goals
46%
Jocoro 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Marte 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jocoro (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jocoro at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

Atlético Marte away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jocoro attack 1.52 + Atlético Marte defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atlético Marte attack 0.91 + Jocoro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jocoro scores more
47%
level
25%
Atlético Marte scores more
27%

Jocoro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jocoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jocoro vs Atlético Marte

Jocoro and Atlético Marte drew 1-1 in Primera Division on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego in Jocoro.