Jocoro 2–3 Alianza: Result & Stats

Jocoro

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Alianza

12/1/2021

Primera Division · Apertura - Quarter-finalsComplejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Jocoro32%

×Draw26%

Alianza42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JocoroExpected goals in this matchAlianza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.44

Jocoro

1.23

Alianza

1.44

Alianza creates 17% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 154 away

1.52

creates per match

1.53

1.35

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Jocoro

1.52

Alianza

1.53

allows per match

Jocoro

1.35

Alianza

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jocoro+0.00on par

Alianza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jocoro ↓

Alianza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jocoro or draw

58%

Jocoro or Alianza

74%

Draw or Alianza

68%

Winning margin

Jocoro wins by 2+

14%

Alianza wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Jocoro 1+ goals

71%

Jocoro 2+ goals

35%

Jocoro 3+ goals

13%

Alianza 1+ goals

76%

Alianza 2+ goals

42%

Alianza 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jocoro (draw refunded)

43%

Alianza (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jocoro at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

Alianza away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jocoro attack 1.52 + Alianza defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alianza attack 1.53 + Jocoro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jocoro scores more

32%

level

26%

Alianza scores more

42%

Alianza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff