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JJ Urquiza vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
FT
0 – 2
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
11/14/2016Primera CPrimera C · Round 14Estadio Ramón Roque Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

JJ Urquiza39%
×Draw30%
Dock Sud31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJ Urquiza
1.14
Dock Sud
0.98

JJ Urquiza creates 16% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

creates per match

JJ Urquiza
1.15
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

JJ Urquiza
0.76
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

JJ Urquiza+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJ Urquiza ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JJ Urquiza or draw
69%
JJ Urquiza or Dock Sud
70%
Draw or Dock Sud
61%

Winning margin

JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
16%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
68%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
32%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
11%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
62%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
26%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
56%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJ Urquiza at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.76 · 74 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJ Urquiza attack 1.15 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + JJ Urquiza defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JJ Urquiza scores more
39%
level
30%
Dock Sud scores more
31%

JJ Urquiza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JJ Urquiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JJ Urquiza vs Dock Sud

Dock Sud beat JJ Urquiza 2-0 in Primera C on November 14, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Roque Martín in Loma Hermosa, Provincia de Buenos Aires.