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JIPPO vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

JIPPO
JIPPO
Preview
15:30
JäPS
JäPS
7/30/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group Stage
Big match
52%
JIPPO
model favours
52%23%25%

JäPS score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

JIPPO52%
×Draw23%
JäPS25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
1.80
JäPS
1.18

JIPPO creates 53% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

JIPPO
1.57
JäPS
1.47

allows per match

JIPPO
0.89
JäPS
2.03

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
75%
JIPPO or JäPS
77%
Draw or JäPS
48%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
29%
JäPS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
83%
JIPPO 2+ goals
54%
JIPPO 3+ goals
27%
JäPS 1+ goals
69%
JäPS 2+ goals
33%
JäPS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
67%
JäPS (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.57 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.80

JäPS attack 1.47 + JIPPO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

JIPPO scores more
52%
level
23%
JäPS scores more
25%

JIPPO at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • JIPPO are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • JIPPO score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of JIPPO’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — JIPPO 3 vs JäPS 2
  • JäPS win just 21% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • 32% of JIPPO’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
JIPPO
DWWDD
JäPS
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: JIPPO host JäPS

July 30, 2026: JIPPO take on JäPS in Ykkösliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.