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JIPPO vs Haka — Ykkösliiga 2026

JIPPO
JIPPO
Preview
16:00
Haka
Haka
10/17/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group Stage
Big match
39%
JIPPO
model favours
39%29%32%

JIPPO are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

JIPPO39%
×Draw29%
Haka32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
1.14
Haka
1.01

JIPPO creates 13% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

creates per match

JIPPO
1.57
Haka
1.14

allows per match

JIPPO
0.89
Haka
0.71

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
68%
JIPPO or Haka
71%
Draw or Haka
61%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
16%
Haka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
68%
JIPPO 2+ goals
32%
JIPPO 3+ goals
11%
Haka 1+ goals
64%
Haka 2+ goals
27%
Haka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
55%
Haka (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Haka away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.57 + Haka defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Haka attack 1.14 + JIPPO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JIPPO scores more
39%
level
29%
Haka scores more
32%

JIPPO at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • JIPPO score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of JIPPO’s matches
  • Haka have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 69% of Haka’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — JIPPO 3 vs Haka 4
  • 32% of JIPPO’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
JIPPO
DWWDD
Haka
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JIPPO vs Haka — Match Preview

JIPPO face Haka on October 17, 2026 in this Ykkösliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.