Jindřichův Hradec vs Zbrojovka Brno U19

Jindřichův Hradec

CANC

11:00

Zbrojovka Brno U19

6/12/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 28Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec54%

×Draw21%

Zbrojovka Brno U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jindřichův HradecExpected goals in this matchZbrojovka Brno U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.40

Jindřichův Hradec

2.13

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.40

Jindřichův Hradec creates 52% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

2.36

creates per match

1.62

1.17

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec

2.36

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.62

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec

1.17

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Zbrojovka Brno U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw

75%

Jindřichův Hradec or Zbrojovka Brno U19

79%

Draw or Zbrojovka Brno U19

46%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

32%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

88%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

63%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

35%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals

75%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals

41%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

68%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Zbrojovka Brno U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.91 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.13

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 1.62 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

54%

level

21%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more

25%

Jindřichův Hradec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff