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Jindřichův Hradec vs Pardubice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
CANC
09:00
Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
5/8/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 15Stadion Na Chvalech - Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec52%
×Draw22%
Pardubice U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.00
Pardubice U19
1.35

Jindřichův Hradec creates 48% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 77 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
Pardubice U19
1.53

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
Pardubice U19
1.65

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Pardubice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
74%
Jindřichův Hradec or Pardubice U19
78%
Draw or Pardubice U19
48%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
30%
Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
86%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
59%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
32%
Pardubice U19 1+ goals
74%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
39%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
67%
Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Pardubice U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pardubice U19 attack 1.53 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
52%
level
22%
Pardubice U19 scores more
26%

Jindřichův Hradec at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jindřichův Hradec host Pardubice U19

May 8, 2021: Jindřichův Hradec take on Pardubice U19 in 1. Liga U19. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jindřichův Hradec host Pardubice U19 at Stadion Na Chvalech - Hřiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.