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Jindřichův Hradec vs Hořovicko — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
PST
09:30
Hořovicko
Hořovicko
3/21/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 18Hrište Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec38%
×Draw23%
Hořovicko40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.69
Hořovicko
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 86 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Hořovicko
1.27

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Hořovicko
1.93

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Hořovicko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
60%
Jindřichův Hradec or Hořovicko
77%
Draw or Hořovicko
62%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
19%
Hořovicko wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
82%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
50%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
24%
Hořovicko 1+ goals
82%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
52%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
49%
Hořovicko (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
38%
level
23%
Hořovicko scores more
40%

Hořovicko at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jindřichův Hradec host Hořovicko

March 21, 2020: Jindřichův Hradec take on Hořovicko in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jindřichův Hradec host Hořovicko at Hrište Vajgar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.