Jincheon vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Jincheon

Preview

05:00

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

10/4/2026

K4 League · Round 23

Big match

40%

Jincheon

model favours

40%25%35%

Top-of-the-table clash — Jincheon 2 vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jincheon40%

×Draw25%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JincheonExpected goals in this matchJungnang Chorus Mustang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.39

Jincheon

1.51

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

2.14

0.63

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Jincheon

1.88

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.14

allows per match

Jincheon

0.63

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw

65%

Jincheon or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

75%

Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

60%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+

20%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals

78%

Jincheon 2+ goals

44%

Jincheon 3+ goals

19%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

75%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

40%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)

54%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.14 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jincheon scores more

40%

level

25%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

35%

Jincheon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Jincheon

LDDDW

Mustang

WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff