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Jincheon vs Jinju Citizen — K4 League 2026

Jincheon
Jincheon
Preview
05:00
Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
10/31/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 25
Big match
46%
Jinju Citizen
model favours
30%24%46%

Top-of-the-table clash — Jincheon 2 vs Jinju Citizen 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jincheon30%
×Draw24%
Jinju Citizen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jincheon
1.27
Jinju Citizen
1.65

Jinju Citizen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jincheon
1.88
Jinju Citizen
2.67

allows per match

Jincheon
0.63
Jinju Citizen
0.67

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par
Jinju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Jinju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw
54%
Jincheon or Jinju Citizen
76%
Draw or Jinju Citizen
70%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+
12%
Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals
72%
Jincheon 2+ goals
36%
Jincheon 3+ goals
14%
Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
81%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
49%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)
39%
Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Jinju Citizen away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jinju Citizen attack 2.67 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jincheon scores more
30%
level
24%
Jinju Citizen scores more
46%

Jinju Citizen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Jincheon
LDDDW
Citizen
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jincheon host Jinju Citizen

October 31, 2026: Jincheon take on Jinju Citizen in K4 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.