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Odder vs Ringkøbing — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Odder
Odder
FT
0 – 2
Ringkøbing
Ringkøbing
9/15/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8Spektrum Odder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Odder40%
×Draw26%
Ringkøbing34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odder
1.38
Ringkøbing
1.25

Odder creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Odder
1.63
Ringkøbing
1.00

allows per match

Odder
1.50
Ringkøbing
1.14

finishing

Odder+0.00on par
Ringkøbing+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odder ↓

Ringkøbing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Odder or draw
66%
Odder or Ringkøbing
74%
Draw or Ringkøbing
60%

Winning margin

Odder wins by 2+
19%
Ringkøbing wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Odder 1+ goals
75%
Odder 2+ goals
40%
Odder 3+ goals
16%
Ringkøbing 1+ goals
71%
Ringkøbing 2+ goals
36%
Ringkøbing 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Odder (draw refunded)
54%
Ringkøbing (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odder at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Ringkøbing away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odder attack 1.63 + Ringkøbing defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ringkøbing attack 1.00 + Odder defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Odder scores more
40%
level
26%
Ringkøbing scores more
34%

Odder at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Odder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odder vs Ringkøbing

Ringkøbing beat Odder 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Spektrum Odder in Odder.