Jiangsu Suning 0–1 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Jiangsu Suning

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shandong Luneng

5/29/2019

FA Cup · 5th RoundNanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jiangsu Suning29%

×Draw22%

Shandong Luneng49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangsu SuningExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.00

Jiangsu Suning

1.49

Shandong Luneng

2.00

Shandong Luneng creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

2.33

creates per match

3.00

1.00

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning

2.33

Shandong Luneng

3.00

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning

1.00

Shandong Luneng

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw

51%

Jiangsu Suning or Shandong Luneng

78%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

71%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

13%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

77%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

44%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

19%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

86%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

59%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

37%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 2.33 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shandong Luneng attack 3.00 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more

29%

level

22%

Shandong Luneng scores more

49%

Shandong Luneng at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff