Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jezero vs Sutjeska — First League 2025

Jezero
Jezero
Preview
18:00
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
8/23/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Pod Racinom
Big match
38%
Sutjeska
model favours
35%27%38%

Jezero score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jezero35%
×Draw27%
Sutjeska38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jezero
1.21
Sutjeska
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Jezero
1.37
Sutjeska
1.48

allows per match

Jezero
1.11
Sutjeska
1.04

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par
Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

Sutjeska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jezero or draw
62%
Jezero or Sutjeska
73%
Draw or Sutjeska
65%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+
15%
Sutjeska wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals
70%
Jezero 2+ goals
34%
Jezero 3+ goals
12%
Sutjeska 1+ goals
72%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
37%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)
47%
Sutjeska (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.37 + Sutjeska defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sutjeska attack 1.48 + Jezero defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jezero scores more
35%
level
27%
Sutjeska scores more
38%

Sutjeska at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 23% of Sutjeska’s matches
  • 69% of Sutjeska’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Jezero
WWLLD
Sutjeska
LLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jezero face Sutjeska (First League)

First League returns with Jezero hosting Sutjeska. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jezero host Sutjeska at Stadion Pod Racinom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.