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Jezero vs Rudar Velenje — First League 2019

Jezero
Jezero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
8/15/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Jezero50%
×Draw26%
Rudar Velenje24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jezero
1.47
Rudar Velenje
0.93

Jezero creates 58% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 90 away

creates per match

Jezero
1.18
Rudar Velenje
0.86

allows per match

Jezero
1.00
Rudar Velenje
1.76

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jezero or draw
76%
Jezero or Rudar Velenje
74%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
50%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+
25%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals
77%
Jezero 2+ goals
43%
Jezero 3+ goals
18%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
61%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
24%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)
68%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.18 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Jezero defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jezero scores more
50%
level
26%
Rudar Velenje scores more
24%

Jezero at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jezero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Jezero 1–0 Rudar Velenje

Jezero beat Rudar Velenje 1-0 in First League on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Bistrice in Nikšić.