Jezero 2–0 Mladost DG: Result & Stats

Jezero

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mladost DG

11/4/2023

First League · Round 15Stadion pod Racinom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jezero46%

×Draw26%

Mladost DG27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JezeroExpected goals in this matchMladost DG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Jezero

1.46

Mladost DG

1.06

Jezero creates 38% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 37 away

1.18

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Jezero

1.18

Mladost DG

1.11

allows per match

Jezero

1.00

Mladost DG

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par

Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

Mladost DG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jezero or draw

73%

Jezero or Mladost DG

74%

Draw or Mladost DG

54%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+

23%

Mladost DG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals

77%

Jezero 2+ goals

43%

Jezero 3+ goals

18%

Mladost DG 1+ goals

65%

Mladost DG 2+ goals

29%

Mladost DG 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)

63%

Mladost DG (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.18 + Mladost DG defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mladost DG attack 1.11 + Jezero defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jezero scores more

46%

level

26%

Mladost DG scores more

27%

Jezero at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jezero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff