Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jezero vs Buducnost Podgorica — Cup 2020

Jezero
Jezero
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgoricaadvanced
5/30/2024CupCup · FinalStadion pod Racinom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jezero29%
×Draw23%
Buducnost Podgorica48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jezero
1.38
Buducnost Podgorica
1.81

Buducnost Podgorica creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jezero
1.57
Buducnost Podgorica
2.18

allows per match

Jezero
1.43
Buducnost Podgorica
1.18

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jezero or draw
52%
Jezero or Buducnost Podgorica
77%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
71%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+
13%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals
75%
Jezero 2+ goals
40%
Jezero 3+ goals
16%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
84%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
54%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)
38%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.57 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.18 + Jezero defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jezero scores more
29%
level
23%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
48%

Buducnost Podgorica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Jezero 1–2 Buducnost Podgorica

Buducnost Podgorica beat Jezero 2-1 in Cup on May 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion pod Racinom in Plav.