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Jezero vs Buducnost Podgorica — First League 2019

Jezero
Jezero
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
10/22/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Jezero30%
×Draw27%
Buducnost Podgorica43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jezero
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.38

Buducnost Podgorica creates 24% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 123 away

creates per match

Jezero
1.18
Buducnost Podgorica
1.75

allows per match

Jezero
1.00
Buducnost Podgorica
1.05

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jezero or draw
57%
Jezero or Buducnost Podgorica
73%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
70%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+
12%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals
67%
Jezero 2+ goals
30%
Jezero 3+ goals
10%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
75%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
40%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)
41%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.18 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Jezero defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jezero scores more
30%
level
27%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
43%

Buducnost Podgorica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jezero vs Buducnost Podgorica

Buducnost Podgorica beat Jezero 3-1 in First League on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijelo Polje.