Jeunes Fauves 0–1 Young Sport Academy

Jeunes Fauves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Young Sport Academy

3/30/2022

Elite One · Round 5Stade Annexe 2 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jeunes Fauves38%

×Draw28%

Young Sport Academy33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunes FauvesExpected goals in this matchYoung Sport Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.10

Jeunes Fauves

1.20

Young Sport Academy

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 79 away

1.08

creates per match

0.94

1.27

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.08

Young Sport Academy

0.94

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.27

Young Sport Academy

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Young Sport Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw

67%

Jeunes Fauves or Young Sport Academy

72%

Draw or Young Sport Academy

62%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

16%

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

70%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

34%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

12%

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

67%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

30%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

53%

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more

38%

level

28%

Young Sport Academy scores more

33%

Jeunes Fauves at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff