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Jesenice vs Bilje — 2. SNL 2019

Jesenice
Jesenice
Preview
16:00
Bilje
Bilje
4/4/20272. SNL2. SNL · Round 22
44%
Bilje
model favours
32%24%44%
1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jesenice32%
×Draw24%
Bilje44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jesenice
1.36
Bilje
1.62

Bilje creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

creates per match

Jesenice
0.87
Bilje
1.24

allows per match

Jesenice
2.00
Bilje
1.85

finishing

Jesenice+0.00on par
Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jesenice ↓

Bilje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jesenice or draw
56%
Jesenice or Bilje
76%
Draw or Bilje
68%

Winning margin

Jesenice wins by 2+
14%
Bilje wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jesenice 1+ goals
74%
Jesenice 2+ goals
39%
Jesenice 3+ goals
16%
Bilje 1+ goals
80%
Bilje 2+ goals
48%
Bilje 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jesenice (draw refunded)
42%
Bilje (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jesenice at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jesenice attack 0.87 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bilje attack 1.24 + Jesenice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jesenice scores more
32%
level
24%
Bilje scores more
44%

Bilje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bilje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Jesenice
LLWLL
Bilje
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jesenice vs Bilje — Match Preview

Jesenice face Bilje on April 4, 2027 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.