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jerv vs Lysekloster — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

jerv
jerv
Preview
12:30
Lysekloster
Lysekloster
7/26/20262. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Round 13
Big match
51%
jerv
model favours
51%22%26%

Lysekloster score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

jerv51%
×Draw22%
Lysekloster26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

jerv
1.90
Lysekloster
1.31

jerv creates 45% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

jerv
1.90
Lysekloster
1.59

allows per match

jerv
1.03
Lysekloster
1.91

finishing

jerv+0.00on par
Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

jerv ↓

Lysekloster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

jerv or draw
74%
jerv or Lysekloster
78%
Draw or Lysekloster
49%

Winning margin

jerv wins by 2+
29%
Lysekloster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

jerv 1+ goals
85%
jerv 2+ goals
56%
jerv 3+ goals
29%
Lysekloster 1+ goals
73%
Lysekloster 2+ goals
38%
Lysekloster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

jerv (draw refunded)
66%
Lysekloster (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

jerv at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

jerv attack 1.90 + Lysekloster defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lysekloster attack 1.59 + jerv defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

jerv scores more
51%
level
22%
Lysekloster scores more
26%

jerv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "jerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • jerv are unbeaten in 8 straight
  • 91% of jerv’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 91% of jerv’s matches
  • jerv sit 1, Lysekloster 11 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
jerv
WWWDW
Lysekloster
DWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

jerv vs Lysekloster — Match Preview

jerv face Lysekloster on July 26, 2026 in this 2. Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.