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Jeonnam Dragons vs Sangju Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Jeonnam Dragons
Jeonnam Dragons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
10/28/2018K League 1K League 1 · Relegation Round - 1Gwangyang Stadium (Gwangyang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jeonnam Dragons34%
×Draw25%
Sangju Sangmu FC42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonnam Dragons
1.36
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.54

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.37
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.24

allows per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.84
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.35

finishing

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par
Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonnam Dragons ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jeonnam Dragons or draw
58%
Jeonnam Dragons or Sangju Sangmu FC
75%
Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC
66%

Winning margin

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+
15%
Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals
74%
Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals
39%
Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals
16%
Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
79%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
45%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)
45%
Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonnam Dragons at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.37 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.24 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jeonnam Dragons scores more
34%
level
25%
Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
42%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonnam Dragons vs Sangju Sangmu FC

Sangju Sangmu FC beat Jeonnam Dragons 1-0 in K League 1 on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Gwangyang Stadium (Gwangyang).