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Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2/16/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 1Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors47%
×Draw25%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonbuk Motors
1.54
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.10

Jeonbuk Motors creates 40% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 117 away

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors
1.70
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors
0.98
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw
73%
Jeonbuk Motors or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
75%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
53%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
24%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
79%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
45%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
20%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
67%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
30%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
64%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.98 · 158 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.70 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more
47%
level
25%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
27%

Jeonbuk Motors at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Jeonbuk Motors 2–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Jeonbuk Motors beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 in K League 1 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in Jeonju.