Jelgava 1–2 FK Liepaja: Result & Stats | Virsliga

Jelgava

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Liepaja

4/5/2019

Virsliga · Round 4FK Jelgava Treniņbāze (Jelgava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jelgava29%

×Draw25%

FK Liepaja46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JelgavaExpected goals in this matchFK Liepaja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.60

Jelgava

1.22

FK Liepaja

1.60

FK Liepaja creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 115 away

0.97

creates per match

1.44

1.77

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Jelgava

0.97

FK Liepaja

1.44

allows per match

Jelgava

1.77

FK Liepaja

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jelgava+0.00on par

FK Liepaja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jelgava ↓

FK Liepaja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jelgava or draw

54%

Jelgava or FK Liepaja

75%

Draw or FK Liepaja

71%

Winning margin

Jelgava wins by 2+

12%

FK Liepaja wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Jelgava 1+ goals

70%

Jelgava 2+ goals

34%

Jelgava 3+ goals

12%

FK Liepaja 1+ goals

80%

FK Liepaja 2+ goals

47%

FK Liepaja 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Jelgava (draw refunded)

39%

FK Liepaja (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jelgava at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

FK Liepaja away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.47 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jelgava attack 0.97 + FK Liepaja defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

FK Liepaja attack 1.44 + Jelgava defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jelgava scores more

29%

level

25%

FK Liepaja scores more

46%

FK Liepaja at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff